Are Deep Learning Structural Models Sufficiently Accurate for Virtual Screening? Application of Docking Algorithms to AlphaFold2 Predicted Structures.

Machine learning-based protein structure prediction algorithms, such as RosettaFold and AlphaFold2, have greatly impacted the structural biology field, arousing a fair amount of discussion around their potential role in drug discovery. While there are few preliminary studies addressing the usage of these models in virtual screening, none of them focus on the prospect of hit-finding in a real-world virtual screen with a model based on low prior structural information. In order to address this, we have developed an AlphaFold2 version where we exclude all structural templates with more than 30% sequence identity from the model-building process. In a previous study, we used those models in conjunction with state-of-the-art free energy perturbation methods and demonstrated that it is possible to obtain quantitatively accurate results. In this work, we focus on using these structures in rigid receptor-ligand docking studies. Our results indicate that using out-of-the-box Alphafold2 models is not an ideal scenario for virtual screening campaigns; in fact, we strongly recommend to include some post-processing modeling to drive the binding site into a more realistic holo model.

Are Deep Learning Structural Models Sufficiently Accurate for Free-Energy Calculations? Application of FEP+ to AlphaFold2-Predicted Structures.

The availability of AlphaFold2 has led to great excitement in the scientific community─particularly among drug hunters─due to the ability of the algorithm to predict protein structures with high accuracy. However, beyond globally accurate protein structure prediction, it remains to be determined whether ligand binding sites are predicted with sufficient accuracy in these structures to be useful in supporting computationally driven drug discovery programs. We explored this question by performing free-energy perturbation (FEP) calculations on a set of well-studied protein-ligand complexes, where AlphaFold2 predictions were performed by removing all templates with >30% identity to the target protein from the training set. We observed that in most cases, the ΔΔG values for ligand transformations calculated with FEP, using these prospective AlphaFold2 structures, were comparable in accuracy to the corresponding calculations previously carried out using crystal structures. We conclude that under the right circumstances, AlphaFold2-modeled structures are accurate enough to be used by physics-based methods such as FEP in typical lead optimization stages of a drug discovery program.